LaLiga26 Apr, 17:00
Prediction Real Betis — Real MadridSunday, 26 April 2026 at 17:00
Real Betis
Home
5th in table
VS
Pending
Real Madrid
Away
2nd in table
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.44
best odds
High
Comparative Statistics
5th
Ranking
2nd
1.5g/m
Avg attack
2.1g/m
1.2ag/m
Avg defence
0.9ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Real Betis
27%
Draw
24%
Real Madrid
49%
Over 2.5 goals
1.44
69% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.60
38% implied
∑Poisson Model
Real Betis
1.26
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.11
goals/match
Real Madrid
1.85
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Real Betis
Poisson
26%
Bookmaker
27%
Draw
Poisson
23%
Bookmaker
24%
Real Madrid
Poisson
51%
Bookmaker
49%
Most probable scores
1–1
10.4%
1–2
9.6%
0–1
8.2%
0–2
7.6%
2–1
6.5%
2–2
6.1%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The expected total goals exceed 3, supported by both teams' attacking strengths and defensive vulnerabilities. The model's 60.1% probability for over 2.5 goals surpasses bookmakers' implied odds, signaling value. I back over 2.5 goals at 1.44, with the main risk being a cautious, low-scoring game.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLaLiga
Date26 Apr, 17:00
Analysis published20 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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