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24 Apr, 21:00

Prediction Real Betis — Real MadridFriday, 24 April 2026 at 21:00

Name: Away Win Prediction — Real Betis vs Real Madrid
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Real Betis

Home

5th in table

1 — 1

✗ Lost

Real Madrid

Away

2nd in table

Our Prediction

✈️

Away Win

match result

Odds

1.91

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

5th

Ranking

2nd

1.5g/m

Avg attack

2.1g/m

1.2ag/m

Avg defence

0.9ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Real Betis

27%

Draw

24%

Real Madrid

49%

Over 2.5 goals

1.44

69% implied

Under 2.5 goals

2.60

38% implied

∑Poisson Model

Real Betis

1.26

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.11

goals/match

Real Madrid

1.85

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Real Betis

Poisson

26%

Bookmaker

27%

Draw

Poisson

23%

Bookmaker

24%

Real Madrid

Poisson

51%

Bookmaker

49%

Most probable scores

1–1

10.4%

1–2

9.6%

0–1

8.2%

0–2

7.6%

2–1

6.5%

2–2

6.1%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Real Madrid's superior offensive firepower and defensive solidity position them as favorites against a Betis side vulnerable at the back. The Poisson model gives Madrid a 51.2% win probability, higher than the bookmakers' 49%, indicating value. I back Real Madrid to win at 1.91, with the main risk being a resilient Betis defense forcing a draw.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

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Away Win

@ 1.91

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