Ligue 125 Apr, 19:05
Prediction Toulouse — AS MonacoSaturday, 25 April 2026 at 19:05
Toulouse
Home
10th in table
VS
Pending
AS Monaco
Away
7th in table
Our Prediction
🏠
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.95
best odds
Low
Comparative Statistics
10th
Ranking
7th
1.4g/m
Avg attack
1.7g/m
1.4ag/m
Avg defence
1.5ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Toulouse
32%
Draw
27%
AS Monaco
41%
Over 2.5 goals
1.75
57% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.02
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +4.3%Toulouse
1.77
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.57
goals/match
AS Monaco
1.80
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Toulouse+6% edge
Poisson
38%
Bookmaker
32%
Draw-5% unfavourable
Poisson
22%
Bookmaker
27%
AS Monaco
Poisson
40%
Bookmaker
41%
Most probable scores
1–1
9.0%
1–2
8.1%
2–1
7.9%
2–2
7.1%
0–1
5.1%
1–0
5.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Toulouse and Monaco have similar goal stats, with Poisson model slightly favoring Monaco. Bookmakers undervalue Toulouse's win at 2.95, creating a value bet opportunity. I back Toulouse to win at 2.95 due to this value edge, recommending a moderate stake.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLigue 1
Date25 Apr, 19:05
Analysis published18 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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