Ligue 125 Apr, 19:05
Prediction Toulouse — AS MonacoSaturday, 25 April 2026 at 19:05
Toulouse
Home
10th in table
VS
Pending
AS Monaco
Away
7th in table
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.75
best odds
Very high
Comparative Statistics
10th
Ranking
7th
1.4g/m
Avg attack
1.7g/m
1.4ag/m
Avg defence
1.5ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Toulouse
32%
Draw
27%
AS Monaco
41%
Over 2.5 goals
1.75
57% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.02
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +11.9%Toulouse
1.77
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.57
goals/match
AS Monaco
1.80
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Toulouse+6% edge
Poisson
38%
Bookmaker
32%
Draw-5% unfavourable
Poisson
22%
Bookmaker
27%
AS Monaco
Poisson
40%
Bookmaker
41%
Most probable scores
1–1
9.0%
1–2
8.1%
2–1
7.9%
2–2
7.1%
0–1
5.1%
1–0
5.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Expected goals total 3.57 with a 69.1% chance of over 2.5 goals per Poisson model. Bookmakers undervalue this at 1.75 odds, implying only 57.1% chance. Backing over 2.5 goals is a strong value bet with high confidence, recommended stake is 4 units.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLigue 1
Date25 Apr, 19:05
Analysis published18 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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