LaLigaPrediction Villarreal — Celta VigoSunday, 26 April 2026 at 19:00
Villarreal
Home
3rd in table
VS
Celta Vigo
Away
6th in table
Our Prediction
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.92
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.92
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.02
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +10.1%Villarreal
2.01
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.21
goals/match
Celta Vigo
1.21
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
2–1
9.8%
1–1
9.7%
2–0
8.1%
1–0
8.1%
3–1
6.5%
2–2
5.9%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The expected total goals of 3.21 and both teams’ offensive profiles suggest a high-scoring match. The Poisson model’s 62.2% probability for over 2.5 goals, well above bookmakers’ 52.1%, signals clear value. I back over 2.5 goals at 1.92, anticipating an open game driven by Villarreal’s attacking style and Celta’s need to push for Europe, with risk if Celta plays ultra-defensively.
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