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LaLiga

26 Apr, 21:00

Prediction Villarreal — Celta VigoSunday, 26 April 2026 at 21:00

Name: Home Win Prediction — Villarreal vs Celta Vigo
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Villarreal

Home

3rd in table

2 — 1

✓ Won

Celta Vigo

Away

6th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.90

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

3rd

Ranking

6th

1.8g/m

Avg attack

1.4g/m

1.2ag/m

Avg defence

1.3ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Villarreal

49%

Draw

28%

Celta Vigo

24%

Over 2.5 goals

1.90

53% implied

Under 2.5 goals

2.05

49% implied

∑Poisson Model

🎯 VALUE BET +3.1%

Villarreal

2.01

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.21

goals/match

Celta Vigo

1.21

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Villarreal+7% edge

Poisson

56%

Bookmaker

49%

Draw-6% unfavourable

Poisson

22%

Bookmaker

28%

Celta Vigo

Poisson

23%

Bookmaker

24%

Most probable scores

2–1

9.8%

1–1

9.7%

2–0

8.1%

1–0

8.1%

3–1

6.5%

2–2

5.9%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Villarreal’s strong position and balanced attack-defense profile make them favorites against a less consistent Celta Vigo. The Poisson model gives Villarreal a 55.8% win probability, higher than bookmakers’ 52.6%, indicating value. I back Villarreal to win at 1.90 due to their tactical pressing and home advantage, with a risk if Celta defends extremely deep.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

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Home Win

@ 1.90

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