LaLigaPrediction Villarreal — Celta VigoSunday, 26 April 2026 at 19:00
Villarreal
Home
3rd in table
VS
Celta Vigo
Away
6th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.90
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.92
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.02
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +3.1%Villarreal
2.01
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.21
goals/match
Celta Vigo
1.21
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
2–1
9.8%
1–1
9.7%
2–0
8.1%
1–0
8.1%
3–1
6.5%
2–2
5.9%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Villarreal’s strong position and balanced attack-defense profile make them favorites against a less consistent Celta Vigo. The Poisson model gives Villarreal a 55.8% win probability, higher than bookmakers’ 52.6%, indicating value. I back Villarreal to win at 1.90 due to their tactical pressing and home advantage, with a risk if Celta defends extremely deep.
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