Mexico won its match against Ecuador with a score of 2-0, in a context where the bookmakers’ odds before the game clearly favored the Mexicans, with odds of 1.00 for a home win, compared to 134.14 for a draw and 474.14 for an Ecuadorian victory. Were these odds justified? The course of the match would provide a clear answer to this question.
The Match Recap
The match saw Mexico creating several scoring opportunities, with a total of 15 shots, including three on target, compared to Ecuador's seven total shots and one on target. The Expected Goals (xG) statistics confirm this trend, with an xG of 1.00 for Mexico and 0.72 for Ecuador. Possession was dominated by Ecuador, who had 57% of the ball, but the Mexicans managed to create more dangerous scoring chances. Key moments in the match included Roberto Alvarado committing a foul on an opponent, then creating a fine attacking move that unfortunately found an opposing defender. Mexico's pressure finally paid off with two goals that sealed Ecuador's fate.
