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Bundesliga

25 Apr, 15:30

Prediction 1. FC Heidenheim — FC St. PauliSaturday, 25 April 2026 at 15:30

Name: Home Win Prediction — 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli
Rating: 4
Author: Footexo

1. FC Heidenheim

Home

12th in table

2 — 0

✓ Won

FC St. Pauli

Away

16th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

2.55

best odds

High

Comparative Statistics

12th

Ranking

16th

1.5g/m

Avg attack

0.9g/m

1.7ag/m

Avg defence

1.7ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

1. FC Heidenheim

39%

Draw

28%

FC St. Pauli

33%

Over 2.5 goals

1.97

51% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.92

52% implied

∑Poisson Model

🎯 VALUE BET +17.2%

1. FC Heidenheim

1.76

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

2.71

goals/match

FC St. Pauli

0.95

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

1. FC Heidenheim+17% edge

Poisson

56%

Bookmaker

39%

Draw-5% unfavourable

Poisson

23%

Bookmaker

28%

FC St. Pauli-13% unfavourable

Poisson

20%

Bookmaker

33%

Most probable scores

1–0

11.7%

1–1

11.1%

2–0

10.3%

2–1

9.8%

0–0

6.7%

0–1

6.3%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Heidenheim's stronger offense and St. Pauli's defensive vulnerabilities create a clear advantage for the home side. The Poisson model shows a 56.5% chance for Heidenheim's win, significantly higher than the bookmakers' 39.2%, indicating a profitable value bet. Confident in Heidenheim exploiting defensive weaknesses, the pick is a home win at 2.55 odds.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Home Win

@ 2.55

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