BundesligaPrediction 1. FC Heidenheim — FC St. PauliSaturday, 25 April 2026 at 15:30
1. FC Heidenheim
Home
12th in table
2 — 0
✓ Won
FC St. Pauli
Away
16th in table
Our Prediction
1. FC Heidenheim Win
match result
Odds
2.55
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.97
51% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.92
52% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +17.2%1. FC Heidenheim
1.76
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.71
goals/match
FC St. Pauli
0.95
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
11.7%
1–1
11.1%
2–0
10.3%
2–1
9.8%
0–0
6.7%
0–1
6.3%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Heidenheim's stronger offense and St. Pauli's defensive vulnerabilities create a clear advantage for the home side. The Poisson model shows a 56.5% chance for Heidenheim's win, significantly higher than the bookmakers' 39.2%, indicating a profitable value bet. Confident in Heidenheim exploiting defensive weaknesses, the pick is a home win at 2.55 odds.
Match information
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