BundesligaPrediction 1. FC Köln — 1. FC HeidenheimSunday, 10 May 2026 at 15:30
1. FC Köln
Home
14th in table
VS
1. FC Heidenheim
Away
14th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.73
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.81
55% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.04
49% implied
∑Poisson Model
1. FC Köln
1.91
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.49
goals/match
1. FC Heidenheim
1.57
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
9.2%
2–1
8.8%
1–2
7.2%
2–2
6.9%
1–0
5.8%
3–1
5.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Which team can seize victory under pressure when both sit close in the table? Köln’s stronger attack, with 1.91 expected goals vs 1.57 for Heidenheim, gives them the edge in a relegation fight. The model shows a 45.9% chance for Köln to win, compared to a 23.5% implied chance for Heidenheim, indicating market undervaluation. I back Köln at 1.73 due to home advantage and attacking potential, with the main risk being a stubborn Heidenheim defense.
Match information
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