Bundesliga25 Apr, 13:30
Prediction 1. FC Köln — Bayer LeverkusenSaturday, 25 April 2026 at 13:30
1. FC Köln
Home
12th in table
VS
Pending
Bayer Leverkusen
Away
6th in table
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.40
best odds
Very high
Comparative Statistics
12th
Ranking
6th
1.5g/m
Avg attack
2.0g/m
1.7ag/m
Avg defence
1.4ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
1. FC Köln
24%
Draw
24%
Bayer Leverkusen
53%
Over 2.5 goals
2.40
42% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.67
60% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +28.6%1. FC Köln
1.47
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.64
goals/match
Bayer Leverkusen
2.17
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
1. FC Köln
Poisson
26%
Bookmaker
24%
Draw
Poisson
21%
Bookmaker
24%
Bayer Leverkusen
Poisson
53%
Bookmaker
53%
Most probable scores
1–2
9.1%
1–1
8.4%
2–2
6.7%
1–3
6.6%
0–2
6.2%
2–1
6.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Expected total goals are high at 3.64 with a 68.1% BTTS probability. Poisson model estimates a 70.2% chance for over 2.5 goals. Bookmakers undervalue this at 41.7%, creating a strong value bet. I back Over 2.5 at 2.40 with high confidence. Stake: 4 units.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionBundesliga
Date25 Apr, 13:30
Analysis published18 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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