Prediction AC Milan — Cagliari CalcioSunday, 24 May 2026 at 20:45

AC Milan and Cagliari Calcio meet on the final Serie A matchday in completely different situations. Milan sit 3rd with 70 points, level with Roma (4th) and just two points ahead of Como and Juventus (both 68 pts). A Champions League spot is directly at stake — defeat tonight at San Siro could push them out of the top four if results elsewhere go against them. Cagliari, on the other hand, are mathematically safe in 16th place (40 pts), five points clear of the relegation playoff zone. They have nothing to play for, which is a key psychological edge for the home side. Milan's recent form is inconsistent (2W-1D-2L in their last five), but they responded with a win at Genoa last week when under pressure. Cagliari showed they can score, beating Atalanta 3-2 and Torino 2-1 in their last two home games. Our Poisson model gives Milan 1.99 expected goals versus 0.78 for Cagliari, yielding a 65.7% win probability for the home side. We back AC Milan, but expect a tight game — 1-0 or 2-1 are the most likely outcomes. Stake: 3 units.