LaLigaPrediction Alavés — BarcelonaWednesday, 13 May 2026 at 21:30
Alavés
Home
18th in table
VS
Barcelona
Away
1st in table
Our Prediction
Away Win
match result
Odds
1.82
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.89
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.94
52% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +19.9%Alavés
1.11
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
4.18
goals/match
Barcelona
3.07
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–3
8.2%
1–2
8.0%
0–3
7.3%
0–2
7.2%
1–4
6.3%
0–4
5.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
How can Alavés contain Barcelona's formidable attack when their defense concedes an average of 1.6 goals per match? Barcelona’s combination of offensive firepower and defensive solidity makes a clear away win highly likely. The Poisson model reveals a strong market inefficiency with a 74.9% win probability versus 54.9% implied odds, highlighting clear value on Barcelona’s victory. I back an away win at 1.82 due to Barcelona’s dominance; the main risk is Alavés playing ultra-defensive to limit the scoreline. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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