LaLigaPrediction Alavés — MallorcaSaturday, 25 April 2026 at 12:00
Alavés
Home
17th in table
VS
Mallorca
Away
15th in table
Our Prediction
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.28
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.28
44% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.73
58% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +12.4%Alavés
1.61
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.94
goals/match
Mallorca
1.33
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
11.3%
2–1
9.1%
1–0
8.5%
1–2
7.6%
0–1
7.1%
2–0
6.8%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Alavés needs points and plays an open style with defensive weaknesses, while Mallorca also concedes frequently, setting the stage for a high-scoring game. The Poisson model shows a 56.2% chance for over 2.5 goals, significantly above the bookmakers’ 43.9%, indicating value. I back over 2.5 goals at 2.28 odds, as both teams’ vulnerabilities and offensive urgency should produce goals; risk lies in an unexpectedly cautious match.
Match information
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