Ligue 118 Apr, 17:00
Prediction Angers — Le HavreSaturday, 18 April 2026 at 17:00
Angers
Home
VS
Pending
Le Havre
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.09
best odds
High
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Angers
28%
Draw
31%
Le Havre
41%
Over 2.5 goals
1.80
56% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.14
47% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +18.7%Angers
1.37
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.43
goals/match
Le Havre
2.06
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Angers
Poisson
25%
Bookmaker
28%
Draw-10% unfavourable
Poisson
21%
Bookmaker
31%
Le Havre+12% edge
Poisson
53%
Bookmaker
41%
Most probable scores
1–2
9.4%
1–1
9.1%
0–2
6.9%
0–1
6.7%
1–3
6.5%
2–2
6.4%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The Poisson model predicts a 66.5% chance of over 2.5 goals, much higher than the bookmakers' 47.8%, indicating a strong value bet. Both teams' offensive and defensive stats support an open, high-scoring game.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLigue 1
Date18 Apr, 17:00
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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