Ligue 125 Apr, 17:00
Prediction Angers — Paris Saint GermainSaturday, 25 April 2026 at 17:00
Angers
Home
13th in table
VS
Pending
Paris Saint Germain
Away
1st in table
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.99
best odds
High
Comparative Statistics
13th
Ranking
1st
0.9g/m
Avg attack
2.3g/m
1.3ag/m
Avg defence
0.9ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Angers
9%
Draw
14%
Paris Saint Germain
77%
Over 2.5 goals
1.99
50% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.83
55% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +7.2%Angers
0.78
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.00
goals/match
Paris Saint Germain
2.22
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Angers
Poisson
12%
Bookmaker
9%
Draw+4% edge
Poisson
18%
Bookmaker
14%
Paris Saint Germain-7% unfavourable
Poisson
70%
Bookmaker
77%
Most probable scores
0–2
12.3%
0–1
11.1%
1–2
9.6%
0–3
9.1%
1–1
8.6%
1–3
7.1%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The expected total goals is 3.00, with a 57.4% chance of over 2.5 goals according to the Poisson model. Bookmakers undervalue this outcome at 50.3% implied probability. This makes Over 2.5 a strong value bet at 1.99 odds.
Other predictions for this match
Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.
Match information
CompetitionLigue 1
Date25 Apr, 17:00
Analysis published18 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
Share this prediction