Premier LeaguePrediction Arsenal — BurnleyMonday, 18 May 2026 at 21:00
Arsenal
Home
1st in table
VS
Burnley
Away
19th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.06
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.93
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.89
53% implied
∑Poisson Model
Arsenal
3.09
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.62
goals/match
Burnley
0.53
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
3–0
13.2%
2–0
12.8%
4–0
10.2%
1–0
8.3%
3–1
7.0%
2–1
6.8%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Arsenal holds the clear tactical edge, dominating offensively while Burnley struggles defensively, evident in their contrasting goals scored and conceded averages. Our Poisson model assigns Arsenal an 85.7% win probability, significantly higher than bookmakers’ implied odds, highlighting an undervaluation of Arsenal’s attacking prowess. We back Arsenal at 1.06 given their pressing need to secure the title against a fragile Burnley side, with the main risk being an unexpectedly defensive Burnley performance limiting goals.
Match information
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