Premier LeaguePrediction Arsenal — FulhamSaturday, 2 May 2026 at 16:30
Arsenal
Home
1st in table
VS
Fulham
Away
10th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.35
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.83
55% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.14
47% implied
∑Poisson Model
Arsenal
2.21
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.94
goals/match
Fulham
0.72
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
2–0
13.0%
1–0
11.7%
3–0
9.6%
2–1
9.4%
1–1
8.5%
3–1
6.9%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Can Arsenal be stopped given their solid attack and defense against a mid-table Fulham without pressure? Arsenal’s 1.9 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game dominate Fulham’s 1.3 scored and 1.4 conceded. The Poisson model’s 71.2% win probability vs. the 66% implied by odds shows value here. I back Arsenal at 1.35 due to their structural superiority and title motivation. Main risk: a rare counter-attack goal from Fulham. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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