Premier LeaguePrediction Arsenal — FulhamSaturday, 2 May 2026 at 18:30
Arsenal
Home
1st in table
3 — 0
✓ Won
Fulham
Away
10th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.35
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.79
56% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.88
53% implied
∑Poisson Model
Arsenal
2.21
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.94
goals/match
Fulham
0.72
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
2–0
13.0%
1–0
11.7%
3–0
9.6%
2–1
9.4%
1–1
8.5%
3–1
6.9%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Can Arsenal be stopped given their solid attack and defense against a mid-table Fulham without pressure? Arsenal’s 1.9 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game dominate Fulham’s 1.3 scored and 1.4 conceded. The Poisson model’s 71.2% win probability vs. the 66% implied by odds shows value here. I back Arsenal at 1.35 due to their structural superiority and title motivation. Main risk: a rare counter-attack goal from Fulham. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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