Champions League15 Apr, 19:00
Prediction Arsenal — Sporting LisbonWednesday, 15 April 2026 at 19:00
Arsenal
Home
3rd in table
0 — 0
✓ Won
Sporting Lisbon
Away
23th in table
Our Prediction
🔒
Under 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.05
best odds
High
Comparative Statistics
WWWWL
Form (5)
DLLLW
3rd
Ranking
23th
2.0g/m
Avg attack
1.6g/m
0.4ag/m
Avg defence
1.5ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Arsenal
63%
Draw
22%
Sporting Lisbon
15%
Over 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.02
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +13.4%Arsenal
1.91
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.21
goals/match
Sporting Lisbon
0.30
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Arsenal+14% edge
Poisson
77%
Bookmaker
63%
Draw-4% unfavourable
Poisson
18%
Bookmaker
22%
Sporting Lisbon-10% unfavourable
Poisson
5%
Bookmaker
15%
Most probable scores
1–0
21.0%
2–0
20.0%
3–0
12.7%
0–0
11.0%
1–1
6.3%
4–0
6.1%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The match is expected to be low-scoring, with a 62.2% probability for under 2.5 goals according to the Poisson model. The odds offer significant value, making Under 2.5 goals a strong complementary bet.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionChampions League
Date15 Apr, 19:00
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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