Serie A18 Apr, 18:45
Prediction AS Roma — Atalanta BCSaturday, 18 April 2026 at 18:45
AS Roma
Home
VS
Pending
Atalanta BC
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.03
best odds
Moderate
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
AS Roma
39%
Draw
28%
Atalanta BC
33%
Over 2.5 goals
1.91
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.00
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +5.1%AS Roma
1.36
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.86
goals/match
Atalanta BC
1.50
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
AS Roma-5% unfavourable
Poisson
34%
Bookmaker
39%
Draw
Poisson
25%
Bookmaker
28%
Atalanta BC+8% edge
Poisson
41%
Bookmaker
33%
Most probable scores
1–1
11.7%
1–2
8.8%
0–1
8.6%
2–1
7.9%
1–0
7.8%
0–2
6.5%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts a 54.4% chance of over 2.5 goals, higher than the bookmaker's 49.3%, indicating value. Both teams have strong attacking stats, suggesting an open game with multiple goals.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionSerie A
Date18 Apr, 18:45
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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