Serie APrediction AS Roma — FiorentinaMonday, 4 May 2026 at 18:45
AS Roma
Home
6th in table
VS
Fiorentina
Away
15th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.74
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.90
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.93
52% implied
∑Poisson Model
AS Roma
1.84
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.66
goals/match
Fiorentina
0.82
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
12.8%
2–0
11.8%
1–1
10.6%
2–1
9.7%
3–0
7.2%
0–0
7.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Is Roma still the clear favorite against a struggling Fiorentina? Roma’s stronger defense and higher attacking output create a significant advantage over a fragile Fiorentina side. The Poisson model confirms a 61.4% win probability, above the implied 55% from bookmakers, highlighting market inefficiency. The 1-0 scoreline is most probable, indicating a tight but controlled win for Roma. I back Roma to win at 1.74 with a solid defensive edge as the key reason; main risk is a quick Fiorentina counter. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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