Serie APrediction AS Roma — FiorentinaMonday, 4 May 2026 at 20:45
AS Roma
Home
6th in table
4 — 0
✓ Won
Fiorentina
Away
15th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.74
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.91
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.00
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
AS Roma
1.84
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.66
goals/match
Fiorentina
0.82
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
12.8%
2–0
11.8%
1–1
10.6%
2–1
9.7%
3–0
7.2%
0–0
7.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Is Roma still the clear favorite against a struggling Fiorentina? Roma’s stronger defense and higher attacking output create a significant advantage over a fragile Fiorentina side. The Poisson model confirms a 61.4% win probability, above the implied 55% from bookmakers, highlighting market inefficiency. The 1-0 scoreline is most probable, indicating a tight but controlled win for Roma. I back Roma to win at 1.74 with a solid defensive edge as the key reason; main risk is a quick Fiorentina counter. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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