Serie APrediction AS Roma — LazioSunday, 17 May 2026 at 15:00
AS Roma
Home
6th in table
VS
Lazio
Away
8th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.64
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.95
51% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.88
53% implied
∑Poisson Model
AS Roma
1.55
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.29
goals/match
Lazio
0.73
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
15.8%
2–0
12.2%
1–1
11.6%
0–0
10.1%
2–1
9.0%
0–1
7.5%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Can Lazio withstand AS Roma’s pursuit of European qualification given Roma's superior attack and defense stats? The Poisson model gives Roma a 56.9% win probability, slightly undervalued by bookmakers, indicating value in backing Roma. The match is expected to be tight and low scoring, so betting on a narrow Roma win at 1.64 makes tactical and statistical sense.
Match information
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