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Premier League

3 May, 18:00

Prediction Aston Villa — Tottenham HotspurSunday, 3 May 2026 at 18:00

Name: Home Win Prediction — Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur
Rating: 4
Author: Footexo

Aston Villa

Home

5th in table

Pending

Tottenham Hotspur

Away

18th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.88

best odds

High

Comparative Statistics

5th

Ranking

18th

1.4g/m

Avg attack

1.3g/m

1.2ag/m

Avg defence

1.6ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Aston Villa

47%

Draw

24%

Tottenham Hotspur

29%

Over 2.5 goals

1.69

59% implied

Under 2.5 goals

2.36

42% implied

∑Poisson Model

Aston Villa

1.93

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.05

goals/match

Tottenham Hotspur

1.12

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Aston Villa+9% edge

Poisson

56%

Bookmaker

47%

Draw

Poisson

22%

Bookmaker

24%

Tottenham Hotspur-7% unfavourable

Poisson

22%

Bookmaker

29%

Most probable scores

1–1

10.2%

2–1

9.9%

1–0

9.2%

2–0

8.8%

3–1

6.4%

1–2

5.7%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Aston Villa’s stronger attack and more solid defense contrast sharply with Tottenham’s vulnerable backline and relegation pressure. The Poisson model gives Villa a 56.2% win probability, higher than the implied 48% from bookmakers, highlighting value. I back Villa to win at 1.88 due to tactical superiority and Tottenham’s defensive frailty, with the main risk being a resilient, defensive Spurs side.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

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Home Win

@ 1.88

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