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Serie A

17 May, 15:00

Prediction Atalanta BC — BolognaSunday, 17 May 2026 at 15:00

Name: Home Win Prediction — Atalanta BC vs Bologna
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Atalanta BC

Home

7th in table

Pending

Bologna

Away

10th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.61

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

7th

Ranking

10th

1.3g/m

Avg attack

1.2g/m

0.9ag/m

Avg defence

1.2ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Atalanta BC

59%

Draw

22%

Bologna

19%

Over 2.5 goals

1.82

55% implied

Under 2.5 goals

2.03

49% implied

∑Poisson Model

Atalanta BC

1.66

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

2.57

goals/match

Bologna

0.92

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Atalanta BC-4% unfavourable

Poisson

55%

Bookmaker

59%

Draw

Poisson

24%

Bookmaker

22%

Bologna

Poisson

21%

Bookmaker

19%

Most probable scores

1–0

12.6%

1–1

11.6%

2–0

10.5%

2–1

9.6%

0–0

7.6%

0–1

7.0%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Atalanta's lower goals conceded per match suggests stronger defensive control compared to Bologna, justifying the bookmakers' favorite status. The Poisson model estimates a 54.8% win probability for Atalanta, closely aligned with the 59% implied by odds but with a slight edge in value due to tactical factors. The predicted 1-0 score highlights a tight match, making betting on Atalanta a strong choice at 1.61 odds.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

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Home Win

@ 1.61

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