Serie APrediction Atalanta BC — GenoaSaturday, 2 May 2026 at 18:45
Atalanta BC
Home
7th in table
VS
Genoa
Away
14th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.59
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.82
55% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.03
49% implied
∑Poisson Model
Atalanta BC
1.97
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.88
goals/match
Genoa
0.90
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
11.1%
2–0
11.0%
1–1
10.1%
2–1
9.9%
3–0
7.2%
3–1
6.5%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Atalanta’s strong offense contrasts with Genoa’s defensive frailty, creating a clear advantage for the home side. The model assigns a 62.2% chance of an Atalanta win, slightly higher than bookmakers’ 60%, supported by a probable 1-0 scoreline. The verdict is a confident home victory at 1.59 odds, with the main risk being Genoa holding a defensive draw.
Match information
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