Serie APrediction Atalanta BC — GenoaSaturday, 2 May 2026 at 20:45
Atalanta BC
Home
7th in table
0 — 0
✗ Lost
Genoa
Away
14th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.59
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.00
50% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.90
53% implied
∑Poisson Model
Atalanta BC
1.97
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.88
goals/match
Genoa
0.90
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
11.1%
2–0
11.0%
1–1
10.1%
2–1
9.9%
3–0
7.2%
3–1
6.5%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Atalanta’s strong offense contrasts with Genoa’s defensive frailty, creating a clear advantage for the home side. The model assigns a 62.2% chance of an Atalanta win, slightly higher than bookmakers’ 60%, supported by a probable 1-0 scoreline. The verdict is a confident home victory at 1.59 odds, with the main risk being Genoa holding a defensive draw.
Match information
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