Champions League14 Apr, 19:00
Prediction Atlético Madrid — BarcelonaTuesday, 14 April 2026 at 19:00
Atlético Madrid
Home
5th in table
1 — 2
✓ Won
Barcelona
Away
2nd in table
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.35
best odds
Very high
Comparative Statistics
WWWWW
Form (5)
DWWWW
5th
Ranking
2nd
2.5g/m
Avg attack
3.5g/m
1.5ag/m
Avg defence
1.6ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Atlético Madrid
26%
Draw
22%
Barcelona
52%
Over 2.5 goals
1.35
74% implied
Under 2.5 goals
3.00
33% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +15.6%Atlético Madrid
3.35
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
7.55
goals/match
Barcelona
4.20
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Atlético Madrid
Poisson
29%
Bookmaker
26%
Draw-8% unfavourable
Poisson
14%
Bookmaker
22%
Barcelona
Poisson
49%
Bookmaker
52%
Most probable scores
3–4
4.3%
3–3
4.1%
2–4
3.8%
2–3
3.6%
3–5
3.6%
4–4
3.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts a very high probability (89.7%) of over 2.5 goals, significantly higher than bookmakers' implied probability. This makes Over 2.5 a strong value bet.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionChampions League
Date14 Apr, 19:00
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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