LaLigaPrediction Atlético Madrid — GironaSunday, 17 May 2026 at 19:00
Atlético Madrid
Home
4th in table
VS
Girona
Away
17th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.58
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.44
41% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.65
61% implied
∑Poisson Model
Atlético Madrid
2.14
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.96
goals/match
Girona
0.82
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
2–0
11.9%
1–0
11.1%
2–1
9.7%
1–1
9.1%
3–0
8.5%
3–1
6.9%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Atlético Madrid’s consistent offensive output and sturdy defense starkly contrast Girona’s defensive struggles, setting a clear advantage for the hosts. The Poisson model assigns a 67.7% chance of an Atlético win, outpacing bookmakers' 62%, and highlights a strong edge on over 2.5 goals at 56.6% probability versus 41% implied odds. Given Atlético’s tactical and statistical superiority fueled by European qualification stakes, backing the home win at 1.58 offers solid value.
Match information
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