LaLigaPrediction Atlético Madrid — GironaSunday, 17 May 2026 at 19:00
Atlético Madrid
Home
4th in table
1 — 0
✓ Won
Girona
Away
17th in table
Our Prediction
Atlético Madrid Win
match result
Odds
1.58
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.44
41% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.65
61% implied
∑Poisson Model
Atlético Madrid
2.14
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.96
goals/match
Girona
0.82
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
2–0
11.9%
1–0
11.1%
2–1
9.7%
1–1
9.1%
3–0
8.5%
3–1
6.9%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Atlético Madrid’s consistent offensive output and sturdy defense starkly contrast Girona’s defensive struggles, setting a clear advantage for the hosts. The Poisson model assigns a 67.7% chance of an Atlético win, outpacing bookmakers' 62%, and highlights a strong edge on over 2.5 goals at 56.6% probability versus 41% implied odds. Given Atlético’s tactical and statistical superiority fueled by European qualification stakes, backing the home win at 1.58 offers solid value.
Match information
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