Ligue 1Prediction Auxerre — AngersSunday, 3 May 2026 at 17:15
Auxerre
Home
16th in table
3 — 1
✓ Won
Angers
Away
13th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.77
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.05
49% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.84
54% implied
∑Poisson Model
Auxerre
1.24
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.04
goals/match
Angers
0.80
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
16.1%
0–0
13.0%
1–1
12.9%
0–1
10.5%
2–0
9.9%
2–1
8.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Auxerre faces relegation pressure, pushing them to play with more intensity against a relaxed Angers side, creating a tactical imbalance favoring the home team. The Poisson model gives Auxerre a 46.4% win probability and highlights an under 2.5 goals scenario with 66.6% likelihood, signaling bookmakers undervalue the low-scoring nature of the game. The verdict is a tight Auxerre win at 1.77 odds, driven by motivation and defensive focus, with risk mainly from potential counterattacks.
Match information
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