Ligue 1Prediction Auxerre — AngersSunday, 3 May 2026 at 15:15
Auxerre
Home
16th in table
VS
Angers
Away
13th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.77
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.05
49% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.80
56% implied
∑Poisson Model
Auxerre
1.24
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.04
goals/match
Angers
0.80
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
16.1%
0–0
13.0%
1–1
12.9%
0–1
10.5%
2–0
9.9%
2–1
8.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Auxerre faces relegation pressure, pushing them to play with more intensity against a relaxed Angers side, creating a tactical imbalance favoring the home team. The Poisson model gives Auxerre a 46.4% win probability and highlights an under 2.5 goals scenario with 66.6% likelihood, signaling bookmakers undervalue the low-scoring nature of the game. The verdict is a tight Auxerre win at 1.77 odds, driven by motivation and defensive focus, with risk mainly from potential counterattacks.
Match information
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