Ligue 1Prediction Auxerre — NiceSunday, 10 May 2026 at 19:00
Auxerre
Home
16th in table
VS
Nice
Away
15th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.46
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.92
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.95
51% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +7.1%Auxerre
1.54
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.63
goals/match
Nice
1.09
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
12.1%
1–0
11.1%
2–1
9.3%
2–0
8.6%
0–1
7.8%
0–0
7.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
A team deploying a low defensive line combined with high pressing and quick transitions can exploit a defensively vulnerable opponent struggling offensively. The home side concedes fewer goals on average than the visitors, indicating a defensive edge. The Poisson model favors the home win at nearly 48%, undervalued by bookmakers at 41%, reflecting the home team's stronger motivation to secure points. I back the home victory at 2.46 due to their defensive solidity and urgency, with the main risk being a cautious game ending in a draw.
Match information
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