Ligue 1Prediction Auxerre — NiceSunday, 10 May 2026 at 21:00
Auxerre
Home
16th in table
2 — 1
✓ Won
Nice
Away
15th in table
Our Prediction
Auxerre Win
match result
Odds
2.46
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.93
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.91
52% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +7.1%Auxerre
1.54
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.63
goals/match
Nice
1.09
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
12.1%
1–0
11.1%
2–1
9.3%
2–0
8.6%
0–1
7.8%
0–0
7.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
A team deploying a low defensive line combined with high pressing and quick transitions can exploit a defensively vulnerable opponent struggling offensively. The home side concedes fewer goals on average than the visitors, indicating a defensive edge. The Poisson model favors the home win at nearly 48%, undervalued by bookmakers at 41%, reflecting the home team's stronger motivation to secure points. I back the home victory at 2.46 due to their defensive solidity and urgency, with the main risk being a cautious game ending in a draw.
Match information
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