Bundesliga18 Apr, 13:30
Prediction Bayer Leverkusen — AugsburgSaturday, 18 April 2026 at 13:30
Bayer Leverkusen
Home
2nd in table
VS
Pending
Augsburg
Away
12th in table
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.05
best odds
High
Comparative Statistics
DLDWD
Form (5)
LLLLD
2nd
Ranking
12th
2.1g/m
Avg attack
1.0g/m
1.3ag/m
Avg defence
1.5ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Bayer Leverkusen
67%
Draw
18%
Augsburg
15%
Over 2.5 goals
2.01
50% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.89
53% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +14.6%Bayer Leverkusen
2.54
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.29
goals/match
Augsburg
0.75
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Bayer Leverkusen+9% edge
Poisson
76%
Bookmaker
67%
Draw
Poisson
15%
Bookmaker
18%
Augsburg-6% unfavourable
Poisson
9%
Bookmaker
15%
Most probable scores
2–0
12.0%
3–0
10.2%
1–0
9.5%
2–1
9.0%
3–1
7.6%
1–1
7.1%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts a 63.4% chance of over 2.5 goals, significantly higher than bookmakers' 48.8%, indicating strong value. Leverkusen's attacking strength supports an expectation of a high-scoring game.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionBundesliga
Date18 Apr, 13:30
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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