Champions League15 Apr, 19:00
Prediction Bayern Munich — Real MadridWednesday, 15 April 2026 at 19:00
Bayern Munich
Home
12th in table
4 — 3
✓ Won
Real Madrid
Away
11th in table
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.72
best odds
Very high
Comparative Statistics
WLWWW
Form (5)
WWWLL
12th
Ranking
11th
2.5g/m
Avg attack
2.5g/m
1.5ag/m
Avg defence
1.5ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Bayern Munich
62%
Draw
18%
Real Madrid
20%
Over 2.5 goals
2.19
46% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.61
62% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +11.6%Bayern Munich
2.82
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.65
goals/match
Real Madrid
0.83
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Bayern Munich+15% edge
Poisson
77%
Bookmaker
62%
Draw-5% unfavourable
Poisson
13%
Bookmaker
18%
Real Madrid-12% unfavourable
Poisson
8%
Bookmaker
20%
Most probable scores
2–0
10.3%
3–0
9.7%
2–1
8.6%
3–1
8.1%
1–0
7.3%
4–0
6.8%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The match is expected to be high-scoring with a 69.8% probability of over 2.5 goals, exceeding the bookmakers' 58.1% implied probability. This value bet on Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 is a strong recommendation.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionChampions League
Date15 Apr, 19:00
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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