Serie A25 Apr, 16:00
Prediction Bologna — AS RomaSaturday, 25 April 2026 at 16:00
Bologna
Home
8th in table
VS
Pending
AS Roma
Away
6th in table
Our Prediction
🔒
Under 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.81
best odds
Moderate
Comparative Statistics
8th
Ranking
6th
1.3g/m
Avg attack
1.4g/m
1.2ag/m
Avg defence
0.9ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Bologna
32%
Draw
29%
AS Roma
39%
Over 2.5 goals
2.16
46% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.81
55% implied
∑Poisson Model
Bologna
1.19
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.53
goals/match
AS Roma
1.34
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Bologna
Poisson
33%
Bookmaker
32%
Draw
Poisson
27%
Bookmaker
29%
AS Roma
Poisson
40%
Bookmaker
39%
Most probable scores
1–1
12.7%
0–1
10.7%
1–0
9.5%
1–2
8.5%
0–0
8.0%
2–1
7.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Expected goals total 2.53 is near the 2.5 line. Poisson model favors Under 2.5 at 53.6%, slightly above Over. Odds reflect this balance, so a moderate 2-unit bet on Under 2.5 is recommended.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionSerie A
Date25 Apr, 16:00
Analysis published18 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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