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Serie A

3 May, 12:30

Prediction Bologna — CagliariSunday, 3 May 2026 at 12:30

Name: Home Win Prediction — Bologna vs Cagliari
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Bologna

Home

8th in table

0 — 0

✗ Lost

Cagliari

Away

16th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.60

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

8th

Ranking

16th

1.2g/m

Avg attack

1.0g/m

1.2ag/m

Avg defence

1.4ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Bologna

43%

Draw

31%

Cagliari

26%

Over 2.5 goals

1.99

50% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.92

52% implied

∑Poisson Model

Bologna

1.82

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

2.85

goals/match

Cagliari

1.03

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Bologna+13% edge

Poisson

56%

Bookmaker

43%

Draw-8% unfavourable

Poisson

23%

Bookmaker

31%

Cagliari-5% unfavourable

Poisson

21%

Bookmaker

26%

Most probable scores

1–1

10.8%

1–0

10.5%

2–1

9.9%

2–0

9.6%

3–1

6.0%

0–1

5.9%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Bologna demonstrates more consistent offensive output and better defensive stability than Cagliari, reflecting a stronger and more balanced team profile. The Poisson model assigns a 55.9% chance for Bologna to win, outpacing the market odds and highlighting a slight inefficiency. The verdict favors a Bologna victory at 1.6 odds due to their attacking edge and defensive resilience, with the main risk being a late draw.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

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Home Win

@ 1.60

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