Premier LeaguePrediction Bournemouth — Crystal PalaceSunday, 3 May 2026 at 13:00
Bournemouth
Home
7th in table
VS
Crystal Palace
Away
13th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.67
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.69
59% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.36
42% implied
∑Poisson Model
Bournemouth
1.68
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.94
goals/match
Crystal Palace
1.26
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
11.2%
2–1
9.4%
1–0
8.9%
2–0
7.5%
1–2
7.1%
0–1
6.7%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Bournemouth's more pronounced attacking profile contrasts with Crystal Palace's tighter defense, suggesting an open game favoring the home side. The Poisson model gives Bournemouth a 47.2% win probability, slightly below the implied 53%, but highlights a high chance of over 2.5 goals and BTTS at 58%, emphasizing attacking potential. I back Bournemouth to win at 1.67, driven by offensive edge and home motivation; main risk is a solid Palace defensive block resulting in a draw.
Match information
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