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Premier League

22 Apr, 19:00

Prediction Bournemouth — Leeds UnitedWednesday, 22 April 2026 at 19:00

Name: Over 2.5 Goals Prediction — Bournemouth vs Leeds United
Rating: 4
Author: Footexo

Bournemouth

Home

8th in table

Pending

Leeds United

Away

15th in table

Our Prediction

⚽

Over 2.5 Goals

over under

Odds

1.81

best odds

High

Comparative Statistics

8th

Ranking

15th

1.5g/m

Avg attack

1.3g/m

1.5ag/m

Avg defence

1.5ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Bournemouth

47%

Draw

27%

Leeds United

27%

Over 2.5 goals

1.81

55% implied

Under 2.5 goals

2.15

47% implied

∑Poisson Model

🎯 VALUE BET +8.1%

Bournemouth

1.89

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.27

goals/match

Leeds United

1.38

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Bournemouth

Poisson

49%

Bookmaker

47%

Draw-5% unfavourable

Poisson

22%

Bookmaker

27%

Leeds United

Poisson

28%

Bookmaker

27%

Most probable scores

1–1

9.9%

2–1

9.4%

1–0

7.2%

1–2

6.8%

2–0

6.8%

2–2

6.5%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Bournemouth's stronger attack against Leeds' vulnerable defense sets the stage for a high-scoring game. The Poisson model estimates a 63.3% chance of over 2.5 goals, significantly above bookmakers' 55.2%, highlighting value. I back Over 2.5 goals at 1.81, confident in Bournemouth's offensive edge and Leeds' defensive weaknesses.

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Bet on this prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

@ 1.81

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