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Premier League

17 May, 16:00

Prediction Brentford — Crystal PalaceSunday, 17 May 2026 at 16:00

Name: Home Win Prediction — Brentford vs Crystal Palace
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Brentford

Home

8th in table

Pending

Crystal Palace

Away

14th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.68

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

8th

Ranking

14th

1.4g/m

Avg attack

1.1g/m

1.4ag/m

Avg defence

1.3ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Brentford

57%

Draw

20%

Crystal Palace

24%

Over 2.5 goals

1.82

55% implied

Under 2.5 goals

2.03

49% implied

∑Poisson Model

Brentford

1.71

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

2.84

goals/match

Crystal Palace

1.13

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Brentford-6% unfavourable

Poisson

51%

Bookmaker

57%

Draw+4% edge

Poisson

24%

Bookmaker

20%

Crystal Palace

Poisson

25%

Bookmaker

24%

Most probable scores

1–1

11.3%

1–0

10.0%

2–1

9.6%

2–0

8.5%

0–1

6.6%

1–2

6.4%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Brentford holds a slight attacking edge and a stronger league position compared to Crystal Palace, suggesting a tactical upper hand. The Poisson model calculates a 50.7% chance for Brentford's win, higher than the implied 57% from bookmakers, indicating value in backing the home side. I back Brentford to win at 1.68, betting on their offensive efficiency and league stability; main risk is a tight Palace defense. Stake: 3 units.

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Home Win

@ 1.68

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