Premier LeaguePrediction Burnley — Aston VillaSunday, 10 May 2026 at 15:00
Burnley
Home
19th in table
VS
Aston Villa
Away
5th in table
Our Prediction
Away Win
match result
Odds
1.60
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.70
59% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.15
47% implied
∑Poisson Model
Burnley
1.30
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.32
goals/match
Aston Villa
2.02
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–2
9.6%
1–1
9.5%
0–2
7.4%
0–1
7.3%
1–3
6.4%
2–2
6.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The key tactical insight is Aston Villa's stronger defense and more potent attack compared to Burnley's porous backline and relegation pressure. The Poisson model assigns a 53.9% chance to Aston Villa's win, slightly better than implied odds, signaling market inefficiency. The verdict favors Aston Villa to capitalize on Burnley's defensive struggles and pressure, with value at 1.6 odds.
Match information
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