LaLigaPrediction CA Osasuna — Atlético MadridTuesday, 12 May 2026 at 21:30
CA Osasuna
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10th in table
VS
Atlético Madrid
Away
4th in table
Our Prediction
Away Win
match result
Odds
2.61
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.82
55% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.03
49% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +7.5%CA Osasuna
1.26
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.88
goals/match
Atlético Madrid
1.62
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
11.5%
1–2
9.3%
0–1
9.1%
0–2
7.4%
2–1
7.2%
1–0
7.1%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Atlético Madrid needs a win to secure a European spot, while Osasuna sits mid-table with less pressure, creating a tactical edge for the visitors given their stronger attack and better defense. The Poisson model calculates a 45.8% chance of Atlético winning, significantly higher than the 38.3% implied by bookmakers, indicating value. The prediction is an away win at 2.61, driven by Atlético’s motivation and statistical superiority, with the main risk being a defensive Osasuna hold leading to a draw.
Match information
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