LaLigaPrediction CA Osasuna — Atlético MadridTuesday, 12 May 2026 at 21:30
CA Osasuna
Home
10th in table
1 — 2
✓ Won
Atlético Madrid
Away
4th in table
Our Prediction
Atlético Madrid Win
match result
Odds
2.61
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.82
55% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.03
49% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +7.5%CA Osasuna
1.26
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.88
goals/match
Atlético Madrid
1.62
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
11.5%
1–2
9.3%
0–1
9.1%
0–2
7.4%
2–1
7.2%
1–0
7.1%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Atlético Madrid needs a win to secure a European spot, while Osasuna sits mid-table with less pressure, creating a tactical edge for the visitors given their stronger attack and better defense. The Poisson model calculates a 45.8% chance of Atlético winning, significantly higher than the 38.3% implied by bookmakers, indicating value. The prediction is an away win at 2.61, driven by Atlético’s motivation and statistical superiority, with the main risk being a defensive Osasuna hold leading to a draw.
Match information
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