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LaLiga

2 May, 19:00

Prediction CA Osasuna — BarcelonaSaturday, 2 May 2026 at 19:00

Name: Away Win Prediction — CA Osasuna vs Barcelona
Rating: 4
Author: Footexo

CA Osasuna

Home

9th in table

Pending

Barcelona

Away

1st in table

Our Prediction

✈️

Away Win

match result

Odds

1.72

best odds

High

Comparative Statistics

9th

Ranking

1st

1.2g/m

Avg attack

2.6g/m

1.2ag/m

Avg defence

0.9ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

CA Osasuna

19%

Draw

24%

Barcelona

56%

Over 2.5 goals

1.90

53% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.99

50% implied

∑Poisson Model

CA Osasuna

1.19

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.49

goals/match

Barcelona

2.30

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

CA Osasuna

Poisson

18%

Bookmaker

19%

Draw-5% unfavourable

Poisson

19%

Bookmaker

24%

Barcelona+6% edge

Poisson

62%

Bookmaker

56%

Most probable scores

1–2

9.6%

1–1

8.3%

0–2

8.1%

1–3

7.4%

0–1

7.0%

0–3

6.2%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Barcelona's offensive edge against Osasuna's vulnerable defense sets a clear tactical advantage for the visitors. The Poisson model gives Barcelona a 62.2% win probability, outperforming the bookmakers' implied 56%, signaling market inefficiency. I back Barcelona to win at 1.72 due to their attacking dominance and need to secure the top spot, with the main risk being a defensive Osasuna holding for a draw.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

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Away Win

@ 1.72

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