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17 May, 19:00

Prediction CA Osasuna — EspanyolSunday, 17 May 2026 at 19:00

Name: Home Win Prediction — CA Osasuna vs Espanyol
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

CA Osasuna

Home

10th in table

Pending

Espanyol

Away

14th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.78

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

10th

Ranking

14th

1.2g/m

Avg attack

1.1g/m

1.3ag/m

Avg defence

1.5ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

CA Osasuna

47%

Draw

27%

Espanyol

25%

Over 2.5 goals

1.91

52% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.85

54% implied

∑Poisson Model

CA Osasuna

1.70

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

2.74

goals/match

Espanyol

1.04

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

CA Osasuna+6% edge

Poisson

53%

Bookmaker

47%

Draw

Poisson

24%

Bookmaker

27%

Espanyol

Poisson

23%

Bookmaker

25%

Most probable scores

1–1

11.4%

1–0

10.9%

2–1

9.7%

2–0

9.3%

0–1

6.7%

0–0

6.4%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Osasuna benefits from a stronger home presence with a sharper attack against Espanyol's leaky defense conceding 1.5 goals per game. This offensive-defensive imbalance favors the home side exploiting Espanyol's pressure situation. The Poisson model rates Osasuna's win at 52.7%, higher than the 47% implicit odds, indicating value. Tight scorelines like 1-1 or 1-0 suggest a close match leaning towards Osasuna's victory, justified by local strength and Espanyol's struggle. I back Osasuna to win @ 1.78 due to local tactical edge and offensive stats, with main risk being Espanyol holding a 0-0 draw. Stake: 3 units.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

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Home Win

@ 1.78

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