LaLigaPrediction CA Osasuna — EspanyolSunday, 17 May 2026 at 19:00
CA Osasuna
Home
10th in table
1 — 2
✗ Lost
Espanyol
Away
14th in table
Our Prediction
CA Osasuna Win
match result
Odds
1.78
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.91
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
∑Poisson Model
CA Osasuna
1.70
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.74
goals/match
Espanyol
1.04
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
11.4%
1–0
10.9%
2–1
9.7%
2–0
9.3%
0–1
6.7%
0–0
6.4%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Osasuna benefits from a stronger home presence with a sharper attack against Espanyol's leaky defense conceding 1.5 goals per game. This offensive-defensive imbalance favors the home side exploiting Espanyol's pressure situation. The Poisson model rates Osasuna's win at 52.7%, higher than the 47% implicit odds, indicating value. Tight scorelines like 1-1 or 1-0 suggest a close match leaning towards Osasuna's victory, justified by local strength and Espanyol's struggle. I back Osasuna to win @ 1.78 due to local tactical edge and offensive stats, with main risk being Espanyol holding a 0-0 draw. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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