Serie APrediction Cagliari — Atalanta BCMonday, 27 April 2026 at 16:30
Cagliari
Home
16th in table
VS
Atalanta BC
Away
7th in table
Our Prediction
Away Win
match result
Odds
1.72
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.86
54% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.81
55% implied
∑Poisson Model
Cagliari
0.99
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.55
goals/match
Atalanta BC
1.56
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
0–1
12.2%
1–1
12.0%
0–2
9.5%
1–2
9.4%
0–0
7.8%
1–0
7.7%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Cagliari struggles offensively against Atalanta’s solid defense, while Atalanta’s balanced attack and defense give them the edge. The Poisson model’s 50.8% probability aligns with bookmaker odds, confirming a strong likelihood of an away win. I back Atalanta to win at 1.72, as their tactical superiority should prevail unless Cagliari manages a defensive masterclass.
Match information
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