Serie APrediction Cagliari — TorinoSunday, 17 May 2026 at 15:00
Cagliari
Home
16th in table
VS
Torino
Away
12th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.39
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.99
50% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
∑Poisson Model
Cagliari
1.69
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.03
goals/match
Torino
1.34
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
10.9%
2–1
9.3%
1–0
8.2%
1–2
7.3%
2–0
6.9%
0–1
6.5%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Who has more to gain under relegation pressure? Cagliari shows increased offensive output with an expected 1.69 goals, surpassing their season average. Torino’s leaky defense and lackluster attack favor the home side’s motivation. The model detects an undervalued Over 2.5 bet at 58.4% vs 50.3% implied, reflecting game openness. I back Cagliari’s win at 2.39 due to their urgent need and Torino’s defensive frailty, with the main risk being a low-scoring draw.
Match information
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