LaLigaPrediction Celta Vigo — Elche CFSunday, 3 May 2026 at 14:00
Celta Vigo
Home
7th in table
3 — 1
✓ Won
Elche CF
Away
14th in table
Our Prediction
Celta Vigo Win
match result
Odds
1.79
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.90
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.00
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
Celta Vigo
1.95
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.25
goals/match
Elche CF
1.30
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
9.8%
2–1
9.6%
1–0
7.6%
2–0
7.4%
1–2
6.4%
3–1
6.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Celta Vigo’s solid defensive profile and higher table position give them an edge over a vulnerable Elche side conceding more goals. The Poisson model shows a 52.6% win probability for Celta and highlights an undervalued over 2.5 goals bet at 62.9% chance, suggesting an open, attacking game. Verdict: bet on Celta Vigo to win at 1.79 due to their defensive strength and home advantage. Main risk: a rare goalless draw. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
Share this prediction