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LaLiga

3 May, 12:00

Prediction Celta Vigo — Elche CFSunday, 3 May 2026 at 12:00

Name: Home Win Prediction — Celta Vigo vs Elche CF
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Celta Vigo

Home

7th in table

Pending

Elche CF

Away

14th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.79

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

7th

Ranking

14th

1.4g/m

Avg attack

1.3g/m

1.3ag/m

Avg defence

1.5ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Celta Vigo

54%

Draw

25%

Elche CF

21%

Over 2.5 goals

1.94

52% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.94

52% implied

∑Poisson Model

Celta Vigo

1.95

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.25

goals/match

Elche CF

1.30

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Celta Vigo

Poisson

53%

Bookmaker

54%

Draw

Poisson

22%

Bookmaker

25%

Elche CF+4% edge

Poisson

25%

Bookmaker

21%

Most probable scores

1–1

9.8%

2–1

9.6%

1–0

7.6%

2–0

7.4%

1–2

6.4%

3–1

6.2%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Celta Vigo’s solid defensive profile and higher table position give them an edge over a vulnerable Elche side conceding more goals. The Poisson model shows a 52.6% win probability for Celta and highlights an undervalued over 2.5 goals bet at 62.9% chance, suggesting an open, attacking game. Verdict: bet on Celta Vigo to win at 1.79 due to their defensive strength and home advantage. Main risk: a rare goalless draw. Stake: 3 units.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Home Win

@ 1.79

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