Premier League18 Apr, 19:00
Prediction Chelsea — Manchester UnitedSaturday, 18 April 2026 at 19:00
Chelsea
Home
VS
Pending
Manchester United
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.45
best odds
Moderate
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Chelsea
45%
Draw
26%
Manchester United
28%
Over 2.5 goals
2.36
42% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.69
59% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +11.5%Chelsea
2.09
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.77
goals/match
Manchester United
0.69
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Chelsea+25% edge
Poisson
70%
Bookmaker
45%
Draw-7% unfavourable
Poisson
19%
Bookmaker
26%
Manchester United-17% unfavourable
Poisson
11%
Bookmaker
28%
Most probable scores
2–0
13.6%
1–0
13.0%
3–0
9.5%
2–1
9.3%
1–1
8.9%
3–1
6.5%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts a 52.3% chance of over 2.5 goals, higher than the bookmakers' 40.8%, indicating value. Given Chelsea's attacking strength and MU's defensive frailties, over 2.5 goals is a solid secondary bet.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionPremier League
Date18 Apr, 19:00
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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