Premier LeaguePrediction Chelsea — Nottingham ForestMonday, 4 May 2026 at 14:00
Chelsea
Home
8th in table
VS
Nottingham Forest
Away
16th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.62
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.69
59% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.36
42% implied
∑Poisson Model
Chelsea
1.85
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.02
goals/match
Nottingham Forest
1.17
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
10.6%
2–1
9.8%
1–0
9.1%
2–0
8.4%
1–2
6.2%
3–1
6.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Chelsea’s attack, with an expected goals value of 1.85 against Nottingham Forest’s 1.17, clearly outperforms their opponent despite similar defensive vulnerabilities, making them favorites. The Poisson model estimates a 53.4% chance of a Chelsea win, slightly above the implied 54% from odds, with the most probable score being 1-1, indicating a tight match but slight edge to Chelsea. I back a Chelsea win at 1.62 due to their offensive edge and home stability. Main risk: a low-scoring draw. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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