Serie APrediction Como — ParmaSunday, 17 May 2026 at 15:00
Como
Home
5th in table
VS
Parma
Away
13th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.32
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.88
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.95
51% implied
∑Poisson Model
Como
1.97
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.41
goals/match
Parma
0.44
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
17.8%
2–0
17.5%
3–0
11.5%
0–0
9.0%
1–1
7.7%
2–1
7.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Como shows defensive solidity and offensive control key in their European chase, while Parma struggles to score consistently. The Poisson model assigns a 74.1% win probability to Como, slightly above bookmakers’ 72%, indicating market inefficiency and a likely controlled victory. I back Como to win at 1.32 due to their clear statistical superiority, with the main risk being a stubborn Parma defense leading to a 0-0 draw.
Match information
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