Home/Predictions/Serie A/Cremonese vs Pisa

Serie A

10 May, 15:00

Prediction Cremonese — PisaSunday, 10 May 2026 at 15:00

Name: Home Win Prediction — Cremonese vs Pisa
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Cremonese

Home

18th in table

3 — 0

✓ Won

Pisa

Away

20th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.67

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

18th

Ranking

20th

0.8g/m

Avg attack

0.7g/m

1.5ag/m

Avg defence

1.8ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Cremonese

56%

Draw

24%

Pisa

20%

Over 2.5 goals

1.93

52% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.95

51% implied

∑Poisson Model

Cremonese

1.52

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

2.42

goals/match

Pisa

0.89

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Cremonese-4% unfavourable

Poisson

52%

Bookmaker

56%

Draw

Poisson

26%

Bookmaker

24%

Pisa

Poisson

22%

Bookmaker

20%

Most probable scores

1–0

13.6%

1–1

12.1%

2–0

10.4%

2–1

9.2%

0–0

8.9%

0–1

8.0%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

The match pits a defensively more stable Cremonese against a Pisa side struggling offensively and defensively, creating a tactical edge for the home team. The Poisson model gives Cremonese a 52% win probability, indicating the market undervalues their chances given the 57% implied by bookmakers. The most probable scoreline of 1-0 supports a tight match where defensive solidity will be decisive, making a home win at 1.67 a strong bet.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Home Win

@ 1.67

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