Premier LeaguePrediction Crystal Palace FC — Arsenal FCSunday, 24 May 2026 at 17:00
Crystal Palace FC
Home
15th in table
1 — 2
✓ Won
Arsenal FC
Away
1st in table
Our Prediction
Arsenal FC Win
match result
Comparative Statistics
∑Poisson Model
Crystal Palace FC
0.91
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.68
goals/match
Arsenal FC
1.77
expected goals (λ)
Most probable scores
0–1
12.1%
1–1
11.0%
0–2
10.7%
1–2
9.8%
0–0
6.8%
0–3
6.3%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Crystal Palace FC's season is on the line, needing a win to avoid relegation, while Arsenal FC must maintain its position as leader or runner-up. Crystal Palace FC's form suggests defensive issues, conceding 1.3 goals per match on average, whereas Arsenal FC has a potent attack, scoring 1.9 goals per match on average. The Poisson model predicts 2.68 expected goals, with a 57.7% chance of an Arsenal FC win. This signal is reliable due to Arsenal FC's attacking style and Crystal Palace FC's defensive vulnerability. We back Arsenal FC. Our main risk is Crystal Palace FC scoring early and forcing a draw, but our Poisson model gives a 49.6% chance of a match with goals from both sides. We stake 3 units.
Match information
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