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LaLiga

9 May, 12:00

Prediction Elche CF — AlavésSaturday, 9 May 2026 at 12:00

Name: Home Win Prediction — Elche CF vs Alavés
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Elche CF

Home

14th in table

Pending

Alavés

Away

17th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

2.28

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

14th

Ranking

17th

1.3g/m

Avg attack

1.2g/m

1.5ag/m

Avg defence

1.5ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Elche CF

42%

Draw

30%

Alavés

29%

Over 2.5 goals

1.88

53% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.96

51% implied

∑Poisson Model

Elche CF

1.81

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.09

goals/match

Alavés

1.28

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Elche CF+8% edge

Poisson

50%

Bookmaker

42%

Draw-7% unfavourable

Poisson

23%

Bookmaker

30%

Alavés

Poisson

27%

Bookmaker

29%

Most probable scores

1–1

10.5%

2–1

9.5%

1–0

8.2%

2–0

7.4%

1–2

6.8%

2–2

6.1%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Elche's offensive edge is clear with 1.81 expected goals versus 1.28 for Alavés, highlighting their ability to impose pressure despite similar scoring averages. The Poisson model signals a 59.7% chance of over 2.5 goals, undervalued by bookmakers at 53.2%, indicating a likely open game favoring Elche. I back Elche to win at 2.28 due to their attacking advantage and less pressure, with the main risk being Alavés's defensive resilience. Stake: 3 units.

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Bet on this prediction

Home Win

@ 2.28

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