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LaLiga

22 Apr, 19:00

Prediction Elche CF — Atlético MadridWednesday, 22 April 2026 at 19:00

Name: Away Win Prediction — Elche CF vs Atlético Madrid
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Elche CF

Home

18th in table

3 — 2

✗ Lost

Atlético Madrid

Away

4th in table

Our Prediction

✈️

Away Win

match result

Odds

2.54

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

18th

Ranking

4th

1.3g/m

Avg attack

1.6g/m

1.5ag/m

Avg defence

1.0ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Elche CF

37%

Draw

26%

Atlético Madrid

37%

Over 2.5 goals

1.93

52% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.96

51% implied

∑Poisson Model

🎯 VALUE BET +11.5%

Elche CF

1.25

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.08

goals/match

Atlético Madrid

1.83

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Elche CF-11% unfavourable

Poisson

26%

Bookmaker

37%

Draw

Poisson

23%

Bookmaker

26%

Atlético Madrid+14% edge

Poisson

51%

Bookmaker

37%

Most probable scores

1–1

10.5%

1–2

9.6%

0–1

8.4%

0–2

7.7%

2–1

6.6%

2–2

6.0%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Atlético Madrid's stronger offense and defense, combined with their European qualification goal, gives them a clear edge over relegation-threatened Elche. The Poisson model shows a 50.8% chance of Atlético winning, significantly higher than the bookmakers' 39.4%, indicating value. I back Atlético to win at 2.54, with the main risk being Elche's defensive resilience leading to a draw.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Away Win

@ 2.54

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