Home/Predictions/LaLiga/Espanyol vs Real Madrid

LaLiga

3 May, 21:00

Prediction Espanyol — Real MadridSunday, 3 May 2026 at 21:00

Name: Away Win Prediction — Espanyol vs Real Madrid
Rating: 4
Author: Footexo

Espanyol

Home

13th in table

0 — 2

✓ Won

Real Madrid

Away

2nd in table

Our Prediction

✈️

Away Win

match result

Odds

1.76

best odds

High

Comparative Statistics

13th

Ranking

2nd

1.1g/m

Avg attack

2.1g/m

1.5ag/m

Avg defence

0.9ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Espanyol

20%

Draw

23%

Real Madrid

56%

Over 2.5 goals

1.99

50% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.92

52% implied

∑Poisson Model

Espanyol

1.14

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.42

goals/match

Real Madrid

2.28

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Espanyol

Poisson

18%

Bookmaker

20%

Draw-4% unfavourable

Poisson

19%

Bookmaker

23%

Real Madrid+7% edge

Poisson

63%

Bookmaker

56%

Most probable scores

1–2

9.7%

1–1

8.5%

0–2

8.5%

0–1

7.4%

1–3

7.4%

0–3

6.4%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Real Madrid’s potent attack contrasts sharply with Espanyol’s fragile defense, making a Madrid win likely despite the latter’s mid-table status. The Poisson model estimates a 62.6% chance of a Madrid victory, exceeding bookmakers’ 55%, indicating value. I back Madrid to win at 1.76 due to their offensive strength and Espanyol’s defensive weakness; risk lies in Espanyol deploying a highly defensive setup.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Away Win

@ 1.76

Bet on Betclic →

100€ for new members